Oscar Predictions

What do we do when we don't know the outcome of a future event? We predict, and hope that our predictions come true. Is it the same as guessing? More often than not, people blur the line between the two and use the terms interchangeably. You predict that it will snow tomorrow, but you guess that the next throw on the dice will be a six. It is possible to predict the dice throw as well.... and that's what this article is about.

Now that we are approaching the Oscars, everybody wants to take a shot at predicting (or should I say guessing) the winners. There might be some obvious winners (Heath Ledger?), but it's a tough competition otherwise. Many folks base their judgment on previous awards such as the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America, BAFTA, etc but what happens when the nominees split the awards. That's where I found the prediction from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame interesting. Having successfully predicted the state-by-state outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Elections, Nate goes on to predict the winners of the 6 major awards at the Oscar ceremony. Briefly, here's how he arrived at his predictions:

Formally speaking, this required the use of statistical software and a process called logistic regression. Informally, it involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not.

List of winners according to Nate Silver and their chances of winning in percent:

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) 85.8%
Supporting Actress: Taraji P Henson (Benjamim Button) 51.0%
Lead Actor: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) 71.1%
Lead Atress: Kate Winslet (The Reader) 67.6%
Best Director: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) 99.7%
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire 99.0%*
* Nate claims that Milk has an outside chance of winning the Best Picture award (that's where politics plays a role)

Read the detailed analysis at: http://nymag.com/movies/features/54335/