And the Oscar goes to...

So how did Nate Silver's predictions fare against the actual Awards?

He got the Best Supporting Actor, Best Actress, Best Director and the Best Picture correctly. 4 out 6.. not bad, I would say! Penelope Cruz beat Taraji Henson to win the Best Supporting Actress and Sean Penn knocked Mickey Rourke out of the Best Actor award. Sean Penn was a total surprise. May be it was the guilt over the passing of Proposition 8 that made the Academy look at his role more closely than usual. I thought his acceptance speech was powerful. He could be the poster-boy for gay rights, given that he has dabbled in political activism at times.

The other heartening awards - A R Rahman winning 2 Oscars for the Best Score and Best Song for Slumdog Millionaire. Add one for Gulzar (lyricist for Jai Ho) and Resul Pookutty (Best Sound Mixing - Slumdog Millionaire) - A near sweep by the underdog team. So much for the name! To top it all, Smile Pinki won the award for the Best Documentary. You might be surprised to know that the movie was made in Hindi and Bhojpuri and describes the tale of Pinki, a young girl with cleft lip who receives a free surgery from The Smile Train program.

P.S.: A reader asked me if prediction was an educated guess. My response is that though prediction is much more educated than a mere guess, it is more based on facts which precede the event. The 2008 election results were predicted (even state-by-state) based on the opinion polls conducted all throughout the summer, rather than on educated guesses (which is sometimes called guesstimate).